Sanlam Private Wealth, Market Commentary, 18 July 2025

Local Markets

South African equities gained slightly, with the JSE Top 40 up 0.35%. Weak June retail sales highlighted household pressure, but rising iron-ore output in May boosted the GDP outlook. Old Mutual warned of a gambling-related social risk, while Treasury advisors urged equitable tax reforms ahead of fiscal planning. The rand held firm despite poor data, reflecting emerging market stability. Investors are watching sector divergence—resilient mining vs. weak consumer demand—as fiscal decisions loom.

American Markets

Markets hit new highs, driven by strong retail sales, earnings, and buybacks. PepsiCo, TSMC, and United Airlines reported robust results. Citadel sees $1 trillion in 2025 buybacks. The Fed Beige Book warned of rising input costs from tariffs, with inflation risks rising. Trump`s Powell criticism had limited impact. Investors focus on consumer strength and AI tailwinds amid policy uncertainty.